Next-generation endpoint security tools ready to replace antivirus

The market for next-generation endpoint security tools has doubled each of the last two years

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The market for next-generation endpoint security tools has doubled each of the last two years, and will continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 67 percent for the next five years -- but that growth could skyrocket if more vendors are certified as antivirus replacements.

Growth has been dramatic because most of the vendors are still very young, said David Monahan, research director at Enterprise Management Associates.

With new companies, even a small increase in revenues can translate to a high percentage growth rate.

"In addition, organizations recognize they need better prevention or detection and are buying at a break-neck pace to augment their current protection," he said. "The thought is that antivirus protects against nuisance threats and the new stuff can then focus on the rest."

Currently, the size of the next-generation market is about half a billion, according to a report released on Tuesday morning.

This compares to an IDC-estimated $9 billion for the traditional antivirus market, which translates to a relative ratio of about 5 percent.

If widespread certification happens, the cash cow the traditional vendors are still experiencing will be in jeopardy, and the relative size of the market could expand a hundredfold, said the report.

That means that either the next-generation market will grow dramatically, Monahan said, or it will grow not quite as much but the traditional market will shrink.

"Both are a possibility," he said. "If the auditors accept more of the solutions as antivirus replacement -- thus allowing business to buy the more effective solution instead -- they will then drop pay-for antivirus because it saves them money not to use two solutions when unnecessary."

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