In Depth

Cyber Security, the Nuclear Threat and You: Cassandra's Guide to the 21st Century

Richard Power interviews Martin Hellman and mulls nuclear risk

By Richard Power

Page 8

Power: What do you see as the greatest obstacle to overcome?

Hellman: "People can't get their minds around the numbers. They are mind-boggling. 'One death is a tragedy, but a million deaths are a statistic.' Even at the current levels, it's as if every other person in Palo Alto were a nuclear weapon. Imagine how you would feel if a nuclear power plant was built next to your house. Now imagine how you would feel if another one was built on the other side. And then another, and then another. And then more and more pop up until there are a thousand nuclear power plants surrounding your home, and that is the minimal risk that my preliminary analysis indicates each and every one of us faces. People would be up in arms about having nuclear weapons in Palo Alto, and yet they are not worried about missiles that are six to eight thousand miles away, could reach us in thirty minutes and aimed at us, or in submarines off our coast that could reach us in ten minutes. It is invisible. That's the problem. You have to make it visible. I came up with this idea as I was studying the economic collapse. People had been warning us, credible people, including Warren Buffet, who is supposed to be the 'Oracle of Omaha,' in 1994. But even the 'Oracle' wasn't listened to."

Power: What does it means to be a Cassandra? Your evoking of this myth resonates with my personal experience, and I am sure with the personal experience of other risk, security and intelligence professionals. What does the role demands of us? How does one cope with the role and the pushback it elicits?

Hellman: "Calling someone a Cassandra in our society has a highly negative connotation because she is often portrayed as a madwoman. But the story is more complex. Apollo gave her the gift of prophecy but, when she spurned his advances, he cursed her so that no one would believe her. She warns the citizens of Troy: 'Don't bring the damn horse in here.' They ignored her."

You can learn more about Hellman's work at http://nuclearrisk.org.