News

IT Predictions for 2009: The Economy Dominates

We set forth to find out what industry analysts and insiders are forecasting for 2009

By Nancy Weil, IDG News Service

Page 2

... And more good news
Netbooks have generated a lot of buzz (and no little bit of hype) of late as more of the small, low-cost, lightweight, energy-efficient laptops hit the market. That will continue apace, but we also expect that the average price of $400 to $500 will drop to the $200 to $300 range. Part of the price plunge will owe to volume production because the price of parts will drop as more netbooks are made.

Long live the iPhone
We're in accord with market research firm IDC that "it will be a grim year for mobile gadgets -- as volume growth flattens in mobile phones, as netbook PCs expand the market but threaten notebook pricing and margins, and as consolidation looms in personal navigation devices." However, we think that the iPhone is going to play a major role -- perhaps single-handedly -- in keeping the smart-phone market afloat, even if it's going to need to be thrown a life preserver along the way. (That's meant metaphorically and not as a prediction that smart-phone makers will be next in line for government bailouts.)

Oh, and we also think that IDC's prediction that portable media player shipments will show a first-time drop is spot on, given market saturation and that there are only so many ways to improve on the players that will induce people to buy new ones.

See ya!
Sun Microsystems Inc. will find a new CEO to replace Jonathan Schwartz. We're torn between the view that he'll be ousted and the view that he'll decide it's just time to go, but either way, we don't believe he'll be Sun's CEO at the end of 2009, if he even makes it past the first quarter or so. And Sun will cease to exist in its current incarnation, perhaps being part of a blockbuster acquisition, perhaps going private.

Time Warner unloads
Time Warner Inc. will manage to unload AOL LLC, either by spinning it off as a separate company, selling it or using it as the basis of a joint venture formed with another company.

Windows 7 will be released
Microsoft Corp. hasn't announced a launch date for Windows 7, and while earlier indications were that it would be out in early 2010, company executives have recently hinted that it could be out around the end of 2009. Adoption of Vista has been sluggish -- not to mention ongoing inroads by Linux, notably in the low-priced PC market -- and a beta demonstration of Windows 7 at the company's Professional Developers Conference in October got a warm reception. We think that the hints will become reality and that Microsoft will release the operating system late in 2009. We'll also be so bold as to predict it will be a vast improvement over Vista. Well, OK, maybe that's not so bold because, you know, how could it be worse, right? But even so, the Microsoft portion of our crystal ball is telling us that Windows 7 will be well-received and help Microsoft regain some of the operating system edge it lost in 2008. (But Linux is still going to nip at Microsoft's heels.)