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Q&A

Richard Hollinger on Shoplifting and Retail Shrink

Criminology professor Hollinger on forthcoming results from the National Retail Security Survey and trends in retail shrinkage. (Part of the What Happens Next security predictions series.)

By Joan Goodchild, Senior Editor

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Also, internal theft may have increased. If stores are making do with fewer employees, there will be more opportunity for workers to be alone in a store. It is that kind of scenario that can lead to employee theft.

Vendor theft and fraud may also be impacted. As vendors bring merchandise into the store, a manager or staff person needs to check the merchandise in. If a store is busy, or understaffed, there will less chance for that to happen on a thorough basis. If a vendor says they have 100 units, but there are only 75, and a manager can't thoroughly check on that, there is 25 percent shrink right off the bat. So, the worry is that there won't be the level of cross-checking and auditing in place to prevent that kind of theft.

How do you think 2008 might compare to other years when you've done the survey?
Last year, if you look at numbers, we saw the lowest level of shrink in 16 years since we've done study. Even though the economy was starting to go down hill, one of the reasons I think we saw lower shrink in '07 is because a number of retailers that were previously in the study were not included in '07. Either the stores chose not to be included or they are no longer in business. The number of stores that participated dropped from the 150's to the 130's because there are fewer major retailers in the country. They are merging or acquiring one another.

In terms of comparison, 1994 was the worst year for shrink in the survey. Much of that was due to the function of record stores that were still in business. When that sector was part of the survey, we saw our highest levels of theft. Records, CDs, were easier to steal. But since the 90's, CDs sales have plummeted. Most people buy music digitally from iTunes now. So that whole sector that was having problems with shrink has just sort of disappeared. That has definitely impacted the results.