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Q&A

Richard Hollinger on Shoplifting and Retail Shrink

Criminology professor Hollinger on forthcoming results from the National Retail Security Survey and trends in retail shrinkage. (Part of the What Happens Next security predictions series.)

By Joan Goodchild, Senior Editor

November 10, 2008 — CSO — For the past 16 years, University of Florida criminology professor Richard Hollinger has conducted the annual National Retail Security Survey. The research polls the vice presidents of security and loss prevention at stores across the country about retail shrinkage and is widely known as the benchmark for measuring shrinkage trends in the United States.

Hollinger, the director of the Security Research Project in the UF Department of Criminology, Law and Society, is still compiling the latest shrink data for 2008 and spoke with CSO about what he is hearing from loss prevention pros on what to expect this year.

CSO: The survey for 2008 isn't complete yet. But what are you anticipating?
Richard Hollinger: From what I can tell, there is really a dramatic disconnect between what happened in '07 and what seems to be happening now. I just got back from meetings with many loss prevention vice presidents. I serve on the advisory council for the national retail federation and sat in a room with many of these people. All seemed to be suggesting that '08 will be very different year. Incidents of shoplifting and employee theft look to be way up in '08.

However, actual dollar amounts might not be that dramatic. Most of the people doing the stealing aren't Ken Lay-types with million-dollar appetites. They are blue-collar, Joe the Plumber-types who are working in retail or who are stealing from retail. So, overall losses may not be dramatically higher because people really can't steal a lot in these stores without being caught.

Why it is so much harder to steal now?
The mantra of loss prevention and retail for last decade has been 'leverage technology.' Stores have really done that using EAS tags and also surveillance cameras. Now there are even point-of-sale integrated camera systems with which they can do exception monitoring. These things just weren't possible in past years. Now stores can make better use of personnel and cover more space with the same amount of technological investment.

But still, theft happens -- or at least they try. You're hearing theft incidents will likely be up in 2008? Why?
One reason may be customer service. If stores have less money to spend, coverage on the floor will go down. So, a shopper will go in to a big box store and have to look for someone to wait on them. In previous years, there were plenty. The first line of defense has always been sales associates. In large stores, with a large amount of square footage and less people put on floor, that means more amateurs that might consider stealing will have the opportunity to try.