14 Worst-Case Scenarios

What does DHS view as the countrys biggest risks? A hint came last April, with a widely distributed draft of a report for use in national and local planning.

By Sarah D. Scalet

January 01, 2006 — CSO —

What does DHS view as the countryâ¬"s biggest risks? A hint came last April, with a widely distributed draft of a report for use in national and local planning. (DHS has not released the final version.) "National Planning Scenarios," a dire 157-page report, listed 14 unranked scenarios that collectively demonstrate the need for a far-reaching range of response capabilities.

Nuclear detonation: 10-kiloton improvised nuclear device

Hundreds of thousands of people are killed when terrorists detonate a nuclear device in a densely populated area during rush hour.

Biological attack: plague

Terrorists release pneumonic plague at a city's airport, sports arena and major train station.

Biological attack: food contamination

Terrorists infiltrate a food plant and contaminate beef with anthrax, which is then shipped to three states.

Biological attack: foreign animal disease

Terrorists infect farm animals with foot-and-mouth disease at specific locations.

Chemical attack: toxic industrial chemicals

Terrorists land several helicopters at oil refineries and launch rocket-propelled grenades and detonate bombs.

Chemical attack: blister agent

Terrorists use an airplane to spray chemical blister agents on a packed college football stadium.

Disease outbreak: pandemic influenza

A new and severe respiratory illness sweeps the country.

Biological attack: aerosol anthrax

A tractor-trailer exiting a large city at rush hour disperses 100 liters of anthrax.

Natural disaster: hurricane

A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in a major metropolitan area.

Natural disaster: earthquake

A 7.2-magnitude earthquake and then an 8.0-magnitude aftershock shake a metropolitan area, affecting 10 million people.

Chemical attack: chlorine tank explosion

Terrorists infiltrate an industrial facility and rupture a chlorine storage tank, releasing a large amount of chlorine gas.

Radiological dispersal devices

Terrorists detonate dirty bombs in three separate but regionally close moderate-to-large cities.

Cyberattack

Terrorists conduct cyberattacks on critical infrastructures using a sophisticated network of bots built over a long period of time.

Bombing using improvised explosive devices

Terrorists detonate multiple bombs at a crowded sports arena and then the lobby of the nearest hospital's emergency room.

Related:

• Three Not-to-Miss Risks
• Spinning the Wheel of Misfortune

Read more about disaster recovery in CSOonline's Disaster Recovery section.

Other stories by Sarah D. Scalet

• Print

• Understanding Risk, Post-Katrina
• Pandemic, Flood Zones, Cyberattacks: Three Not-to-Miss Risks